Last fall,
the conservative German newspaper Die Welt ran an odd essay about Max von
Baden, the last chancellor of the German Empire. In 1918, von Baden had
unilaterally forced the abdication of Emperor Wilhelm II, ushering in the
Weimar Republic. The author of the essay framed the incident as a “lesson about
timing in politics.” If Max von Baden hadn’t hesitated as long as he had before
ending the monarchy, he argued, the revolution of November 1918 might have been
averted, and the Weimar Republic might have stood on far more solid, more legitimate
feet.
This
centennial commemoration of a statesman’s inactivity and its far-reaching
consequences was itself a lesson about timing: Die Welt published it to
coincide with an election in the state of Hesse, in central Germany. Seemingly
innocuous, the article was in fact intended as a message to another politician
who has demonstrated a mastery of sitting out problems, hoping they’ll simply
solve themselves. Angela Merkel and her party, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU), had been losing support in national and state elections, frequently to
the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Die Welt’s message would have been
obvious to anyone paying close attention: step aside, or else reap the populist
whirlwind.
The essay’s
author, however, was not an upstart of a new post-Merkel party. It was Wolfgang
Schäuble, the 76-year-old stalwart of the pre-Merkel CDU, someone who had been
until recently her most visible minister. In the event, the CDU lost 11.3
percent of the vote share in Hesse, and the AfD and the Green Party once again
overperformed. Merkel heeded the nudge. A few days after the election, she
agreed to step aside as head of the CDU—step one of a slow-motion resignation.
For more
than a decade, beginning with the crash of 2008 and on through the various
monetary crises that followed, as well as the wave of right-wing populism that
swept into office illiberal governments across Europe, Germany had functioned
as an outlier—a beacon of stability in an uncertain world. It was widely
regarded (and certainly regarded itself) as a buttress of the Eurozone’s
economic health against irresponsible spending. The Brexit vote threw into
relief Germany’s role as the main guarantor of the European Union’s political
stability and bolstered its claim to being the center of Europe. After Donald
Trump’s ascent to the presidency the new German self-image seemed to find its
ultimate embodiment in Merkel herself, the new “leader of the free world.”
Yet only
two years later, as the German sociologist Oliver Nachtwey recently wrote in
the New York Times, “the stability (and even monotony) associated with German
politics under Ms. Merkel appears to be coming to an end.” That monotony has a
name: Alternativlosigkeit, or alternativelessness. Although it was Merkel who would
come to be associated with that word, Schäuble was the one who provided its
affective and somatic underpinnings. Merkel was the prophet of
alternativelessness; Schäuble was its embodiment.
Though—like many commentators in Europe and
the US—Nachtwey links that end to the pressures brought to bear on centrist
Merkel from the populist left and right, one of the remarkable things about the
Merkeldämmerung is that it is largely forces within Schäuble’s and Merkel’s
party that are threatening to undo the German exception. Those forces throw a
light on how the exception emerged in the first place.
Most
Germans remember that Angela Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian “sister party” the
CSU are separate entities only when there are state elections in Bavaria—the
only state in which the CSU fields candidates and in which the CDU fields none.
This has been the arrangement since 1949: the CSU provides the CDU with a
massive trove of votes and members, along with an effective and populist right
wing. And in exchange the CDU provides the CSU with a direct line from local
politics into the national centers of power (the CSU is, for instance,
guaranteed a certain number of posts in any CDU/CSU-led government), as well as
respectability and a dose of cosmopolitan credibility.
The CSU has
been central to the CDU juggernaut, and that juggernaut, in turn, has been
central to the sometimes reassuring, often soul-killing, sameness of German
politics. But in 2018 the dynamic shifted. In the lead-up to the Bavarian
elections, which took place in July of that year, the CSU suddenly seemed ready
to abandon the governing coalition in Berlin. At issue were the refugees
arriving at the German border (albeit in smaller numbers than before). Perhaps
emboldened by the rhetoric of the AfD, the head of the CSU, Horst Seehofer,
demanded that some of the new arrivals be turned away. It was a largely
symbolic demand: Seehofer wanted Merkel to show a little bit of cruelty to
brown people, but the chancellor refused his pressure. All at once, Germany’s
steadiness was under threat—and not only under threat from within, but from
within the within. Here was the spectacle of a parliamentary democracy,
conceived with an extraordinary degree of autoimmune response to authoritarian
takeovers, turning on itself.
Recent
European history suggests that the rise of far-right parties, and the
mainstream’s response to it, plays out in one of two ways. The first we might
call the French model: as the right wing makes more and more inroads, left and
center-right band together to defend the liberal order, even if each has
serious misgivings about that order. As a result the parties defending some
version of the status quo become faceless and interchangeable, and the only
“true” alternative becomes the far right. The other is the Austrian model:
alarmed by the rise of the far right, the nominal center moves sharply to the
right in hopes of “winning back” lost voters. Those voters unsurprisingly
prefer the genuine article. So the old guard enters into an alliance with the
far right, hoping either to demystify the fringe, or simply to be eaten last.
Merkel
ended up winning in July, but her victory was mostly Pyrrhic: while the
Bavarian election seemed to bear out her instincts over Seehofer’s, her party
still lost votes. The disagreement between Merkel and Seehofer came down to the
French model versus the Austrian one. More fundamentally, however, both
politicians were in tacit agreement that Germany, which had made it its mission
to be different from other countries—which had taken it as a point of pride to
be the exception—was no longer unique. It was neither imbued with terrible
historical memories that rendered it constitutively immune to the seductions of
right-wing populism, nor blessed with institutions uniquely unsusceptible to a
takeover. Germany was, in the end, either France or Austria—that was all.
Nachtwey
and others have argued that the end of what he calls “social modernity”—which
has resulted in the rise of precarious and ad hoc labor and the decline of
unions—creates a downward pressure that allows for the rise of protest
movements on the left and the right. In his book Germany’s Hidden Crisis,
Nachtwey writes that the problems that have torn apart the social consensus in
France and Austria, as well as Spain and Italy, have been smoldering underneath
in Germany as well—the titular hidden crisis. “The conflicts in our country
have largely remained latent,” he writes, “which is no doubt due to the present
economic and institutional stability.” Between the book’s German publication in
2016 and the American release last fall, the latter began to give way. The
former, however, did not, even though it is now looking more and more likely
that Germany is sliding into recession.
Yet as
Nachtwey puts it in his afterword, Germany likely would have remained “a
bastion of political stability” had “the so-called refugee crisis not abruptly
exposed the social tensions that had accumulated over decades.” This diagnosis
seems immediately plausible. But in a way Nachtwey’s conditional formulation is
in itself quite interesting—it isn’t immediately clear how a crisis that, as he
correctly notes, was at best so-called, and one which at least initially
unleashed a wave of solidarity with the new arrivals across the country,
ultimately ended up containing this explosive potential.
The
question, then, is what has been hiding Germany’s hidden crisis. Nachtwey was
once an associate researcher at the Frankfurt Institute for Social Research
(the Frankfurt School). No less a predecessor than Adorno proposed, when
reflecting on the rise of neo-Nazi groups, that “even in the midst of
prosperity . . . the majority of people probably feel secretly that they are
potentially unemployed, recipients of charity, and hence really objects, not
subjects of society: this is the fully legitimate and reasonable cause of their
discomfort.” Adorno made this observation in 1959. It may have been as true
then as it was when Nachtwey made it in 2016. But it seems for that very reason
unlikely to fully explain what has happened over the last few years. As the
political scientist Philip Manow has put it, the idea that right-wing populism
succeeds mostly among those left behind by neoliberalism “is not wrong in
general, but it does not suffice as a general explanation.” Between Adorno and
Nachtwey we could ask: since their answer has long been the correct one, why
did it take so long for that fact to reveal itself?
The state
of Baden-Württemberg lies just west of Bavaria. Home to corporations like
Mercedes Benz, the software company SAP, and Bosch, the state is immensely
prosperous. Its population is about ten million, and the unemployment rate is
3.1 percent. If there’s a hidden crisis in Germany, it’s particularly hidden
here. And yet in 2017 about 12 percent of the population voted for the AfD. (In
2017 the AfD’s national numbers were 12.6 percent.) Like the post-election
coverage of the American rust belt, accounts of the AfD’s rise tend to talk
about anomie in East Germany, Merkel’s home turf. But Baden-Württemberg doesn’t
lend itself to those kinds of narratives. To understand why the far right might
resonate in such a rich and successful state, it is instructive to look to
Schäuble, Baden-Württemberg’s native son.
At the
national level, the AfD’s success is without precedent. In Baden-Württemberg,
however, it is not. In 1968, the neo-Nazi NPD won 9.8 percent of the vote
there. In 1992 the far-right Republicans (REP) won 10.9 percent, and in 1996
they received 9.1 percent. In a 2014 interview Schäuble pointed out exactly
this trend: “The Republicans were history rather quickly, I think it’ll be the
same with the AfD.” Many commentators at the time were outraged at this
business-as-usual response, but it represented a sound structural grasp of
German politics. One of the features of the crises Germany faces is that they
have always been with us. As the historian Reinhart Koselleck once pointed out,
the concept of “crisis” has long been used to impose a demand. What is striking
about the German crises of recent years—the one surrounding the refugees as
much as the political one precipitated by it, the rise of the AfD as much as
the wave of cruelty attending its rise—is that they are neither sudden nor truly
disruptive. They have been built into the way Germany has functioned for the
last thirty years.
The spike
in refugees arriving in 2015 created administrative challenges across Europe,
but the only crisis worthy of the name concerned the relentless politicization
of the sudden influx, both among EU-member countries and by political parties
within them. While Merkel focused on the logistical nature of the problem—“we
can do this,” she said in a soundbite that has been thrown in her face ever
since—others were intent on making the crisis something it was not: a clash of
cultures. This tactical retreat from feasibility politics was a beat-by-beat
replay of earlier confrontations. The angry protestors and politicians
screaming about the danger posed by refugees were reading from an old script.
The
so-called “asylum debate” that now buoys the fortunes of the AfD first entered
German politics in the mid-1980s. It was conjured into existence by the CDU
itself, as a convenient election strategy. In response to an uptick in the
number of asylum seekers, CSU politicians like Edmund Stoiber and Franz Josef
Strauß fantasized about the possibility of “one hundred million potential
refugees.” Just like Seehofer in 2018, they threatened to leave the partnership
with the CDU unless they were allowed to turn refugees away at the border. Lead
articles in the German press blared about “waves” of Muslims coming to rape
Germany’s daughters and election posters declared the boat full.
Schäuble,
then Kohl’s secretary of the interior (the department responsible for security
and immigration), took a sort of middle tack. A conservative himself, he
nonetheless steered clear of the rhetorical excesses of Stoiber and the CSU.
But at the same time he sought to signal that limiting the number of asylum
seekers was of paramount importance. His reasoning was vintage Schäuble: fifty
thousand refugees, he said, “wouldn’t be a problem,” but “one hundred thousand
is the magic threshold which would activate certain political sensibilities.”
You might
think Schäuble was talking about what numbers the state’s bureaucracy could
deal with. But no, the number has to do with “certain political sensibilities.”
Exceeding it would by some strange magic anger “the people”—the kinds of people
who set fire to kebab stands, one supposes. At the time Germany was accepting
between 120,000 and 200,000 asylum seekers, mostly from Africa, Asia and
Eastern Europe. The economy was strong, the Deutschmark dominant in Europe. The
convulsions brought about by unification were still in the future. What
Schäuble was really saying was: unless there is some suffering inflicted on
some of these new arrivals, the people will revolt.
Schäuble
got his wish, but the people, or a subset of them, revolted anyway. The
inevitable wave of racist violence started in West Germany well before the Iron
Curtain came down, but it asserted itself most spectacularly in
post-unification East Germany, a more homogeneous society undergoing rapid
changes. In August 1992, for instance, residents of Rostock-Lichtenhagen laid
siege to apartment buildings housing refugees and legal Vietnamese guest
workers. For four days and nights neo-Nazis hurled Molotov cocktails and bricks
into the buildings to the cheers of onlookers, who flashed Hitler salutes for the
cameras. The police withdrew at first, but finally returned—to deport the
residents of the besieged houses. (Their neighbors got a month of free rent.)
In the end,
the first run-through of the “asylum debate” vindicated Schäuble’s instinct:
the German state exacted its pound of flesh, sent back asylum seekers, and
caused the newcomers untold suffering and frustration. The result represented a
sort of compact between respectable conservatives and the crueler instincts of
their base. Faced with an outpouring of cruelty and violence, political leaders
moved to placate the victimizers and punish their victims. Live out your worst
impulses, the compact says, and we will spend speech upon speech and talk show
upon talk show telling you it isn’t really your fault. More importantly, we
will take your verbal and physical violence to stand in for how “Germans”
really feel. It is this reversal of thrust that Angela Merkel refused in the
summer of 2015.
Schäuble’s
suggestion that the AfD would go the way of all their far-right predecessors
has come to be regarded as a serious misdiagnosis, yet this was how the system
had worked for nearly a half-century. After neo-Nazis won almost 10 percent of
the vote in the sixties, they threw their support for the next election, in 1972,
behind the CDU’s candidate, a former Nazi with not entirely former-Nazi views.
In the mid-1990s, Oskar Lafontaine, then head of the SPD, tried to score points
by fulminating against immigrants and was seen as giving the REP an unexpected
bounce. Today the voluble mayor of the university town of Tübingen, a member of
the Green Party, worries aloud about refugees in tones that, while definitely
miles away from the AfD, seem designed to resonate with its voters.
Schäuble’s
interview is now five years old. In the interim it has become clear that the
major parties can no longer swallow the politics of cruelty they have
habitually seeded and then reabsorbed. German conservatism had long colonized a
swamp on its right flank, a swamp consisting of things you couldn’t say or talk
about, but to which you could point and be understood. Now their connection to
that swamp has become tenuous. When mainstream politicians stray into it they
either get lost or don’t find what they’re looking for. The CSU in particular understands
the AfD’s codes, having deployed them themselves for decades. But by last
summer the CSU’s populism was a knock-off, while voters had gotten a taste for
the real thing.
Why have
voters refused to be reabsorbed by parties like the CSU this time around? Many
have proposed a generational explanation for this transformation: younger
people, farther from Nazism and the Holocaust, have reclaimed territory onto
which their elders dared not venture. But the AfD is not a youth movement—it is
most popular among those 45 and older. Others have blamed the legitimating
function of social media. There is certainly something to that idea, but the
AfD seems less dependent on fake Facebook content and email forwards than, say,
its Trumpist equivalents. The party’s evangelists publish books, give public
readings, and organize foundations, boring hard boards like everyone else.
Perhaps the
answer is that it isn’t the right that has changed; it’s the mainstream that
would have to reabsorb it. The “asylum debate” of the 1980s and ’90s was
conducted among ethnic Germans over the heads of second- and third-generation
immigrants: people who had German passports, spoke German, and considered
themselves German, but were not admitted to be authentically so. When buildings
were burned it was often their houses, not those of the asylum seekers the
supposed debate was about.
This has
changed, though not nearly quickly enough. Germans with immigrant backgrounds
are present throughout the political party system (with the exception of the
AfD), as well as in the media, and they are starting to make their influence
felt electorally. In 2013, they made up nearly 10 percent of eligible voters.
By the same token, the group of Germans that in the 1980s considered themselves
simply “Germans” are now forced to understand themselves as one group of
Germans: white Germans are now Biodeutsche (in the parlance of the right wing),
Almans, or simply “potatoes” (a mocking term preferred by German youths of
“migratory background”).
They are
these things precisely because there are other Germans who call them these
things and have the means to be heard calling them that. The self-evident sense
that certain Germans retained of who is a voter and what a fellow citizen looks
like has disappeared. An imagined space of impunity, of assumed homogeneity, is
in the process of vanishing. There is a small town in Bavaria that dresses up
in yellowface once a year for a “Chinese carnival”—in 2018 they had to do it
with one visibly perplexed Asian-German reporter in their midst, who was
covering their rituals for VICE Germany.
Now, when a
politician or a public intellectual or a newspaper goes on a Rumspringa in the
rightmost reaches of the political spectrum, or if the fine citizens of some
small town decide to set fire to a house, there is less of a script by which
they would be welcomed back into respectability. Certain ethnic Germans used to
take it as their seigneurial right to shower cruelty on the vulnerable and
return to the mainstream after a cooling-off period to be listened to and
shaken hands with. They are beginning to feel deprived of that right.
For
decades, purveyors of the rhetoric of technocratic stability have outsourced
their and their voters’ most sadistic and unpalatable beliefs and impulses to
the far right. But Schäuble’s career suggests that, while technocratic
governance has countless mechanisms to repress its own inherent cruelty and
outsource them to the fringes, there is a kind of cruelty that comes from, and
is enjoyed at, the center rather than the fringes. To many of its
subjects—refugees being told that persecution without torture isn’t enough to
win them asylum, unemployed workers being forced to provide all their rejection
letters to prove they’re actively looking for work, Greek politicians being
told to cut loose the country’s pensioners in the order to reassure
investors—this inherent cruelty is wholly self-evident.
Schäuble
himself understood early on that technocracy has its sadistic side, and he has
embraced it. Both major German parties have in the last thirty years
occasionally lapsed into a politics of administered cruelty. The
Treuhandanstalt (Trust Agency) that privatized the state-owned companies in
East Germany, the safety-net cuts of “Agenda 2010,” and the draconian austerity
measures after the financial crisis of 2008—all of these were approached by
serious old men in smart suits in boardrooms with a kind of resigned shrug. We
don’t like it either, they seemed to say, but this is what needs to happen.
Schäuble, however, didn’t shrug at all—he seemed to feel genuine glee at the
dictates that everyone else pretended to accept only reluctantly. Politicians
of his type have been adept at making sound quantitative and objective what
ultimately boils down to a demand for suffering, for mortification.
The success
of the AfD suggests that Schäuble shares the recognition that
alternativelessness has its religious, sacrificial dimension with a growing
segment of voters in Germany. These voters have long recognized the carefully
sublimated cruelty of alternativelessness; in many cases they’ve been at the
receiving end of it. They accepted some of that cruelty for themselves,
although very little—nothing more than a light paddle and an available safe
word. But above all they demanded that, whatever cruelty the system meted out
to them or people like them, it visit ten times that onto the Other. The AfD
began as a party of technocrats, and its founders frequently seem surprised by
how it sleepwalked from deficits and Euroskepticism to overt racism and
illiberalism. One of the movement’s forerunners was Thilo Sarrazin, once an
economist at Germany’s central bank, who at some point went from
prognosticating that runaway deficits would spell Germany’s doom to
prognosticating that runaway procreation by “hijab-girls” would spell Germany’s
doom.
It’s a
trajectory that isn’t actually all that surprising. Thanks to politicians like
Schäuble, for decades now these voters have become used to being applauded for
this perspective. Their coldness was reconceptualized as maturity, realism,
steeliness of resolve. As the refugees arrived in 2015, CSU’s Secretary General
worried that society would “implode” and “the people” would rise up. “Anyone
who doesn’t recognize this,” he added about his bit of apocalyptic fan fiction,
“ignores reality.” Pragmatic positions were recast as “political correctness,”
as “failed multiculturalism,” while bizarre fantasies about racial civil war
could stake a claim to being the “realistic” or “serious” position. This is how
documents like the German Basic Law, with its talk about “the dignity of man,”
or international asylum conventions, could seem to them like softhearted hippie
tracts. The only realistic way of looking at the world was looking to make it
hurt.
Adorno once
spoke of the “categorical imperative of ‘never again’,” and the anxiety with
which people watch unemployment figures in Germany is all about this
“again”—about fascism as relapse, as repetition. It is against this background
that the 12.6 percent of the vote the AfD won nationally in last year’s
elections constitutes an incredible shock. Against the easy sociology and the
old stories, what the result actually highlights is that Germany now
specializes in a fascism in the midst of satiety. Perhaps even a fascism of
satiety. And that this, rather than some vague revival of Nazism, is the shape
that far-right populism has long taken in the country. As the historian Birte
Förster put it on Twitter: “It’s not like Weimar, it’s not like 1933, it’s like
Germany, 2018.”
After World
War II, German nationalism became an impossibility. It survived largely by
being refracted through economics, above all exports. Affluence at home gave
people the feeling that “we are somebody again,” as the saying went. The wave
of German cars, wares and weapons washing over Europe and the world took the
place of German troops. Germans have long moralized economics (not for nothing
did Max Weber write The Protestant Ethic in Heidelberg), but after World War II
economics to some extent replaced politics: it reconciled Germany with its
neighbors and former victims, it finally integrated Germany in an
interconnected Europe, and eventually it dismantled the Iron Curtain and
unified the country.
But in
hindsight it is hard to miss the fact that this economic system, for all its
technocratic mousiness, was suffused with displaced affective energy. And not
just pride in one’s own wealth, but also a sadistic glee over the misery of
others, which is interpreted in similarly moral or theological terms as
Germany’s postwar economic success. This was true both between Germany and its
neighbors and within Germany itself. Nachtwey probably underplays the ethnic
dimension of what he calls “social modernity.” Unlike the New Deal in the
United States, postwar affluence in Germany was not explicitly premised on racial
stratification. Nevertheless, it’s hard not to sense a connection between the
kind of solidarity that underpinned the postwar system of “social market
capitalism” and the fact that the massive amounts of wealth created never went
to the new arrivals in the country—the Turks, Italians, Greeks, and Yugoslavs
who were at any rate still referred to as “guest workers,” even after decades
in the country, sometimes even after obtaining German citizenship.
The
righteous fury with which Germans have voiced their suspicion that most
immigrants aren’t “really” refugees, but are, horror horrorum, motivated by
hopes for a better life, is of a piece with this moralization. Germans have
become good at denying others what they take to be their own birthright: they are
terrified of foreigners taking their jobs, and then inundate Austrian medical
schools and Swiss hospitals. They demanded that Greece put its pension system
on a sustainable footing, but managed no such thing themselves during decades
of affluence. In an infamous 2009 interview that prefigured the rhetoric of the
AfD, Sarrazin claimed that “70 percent of Turkish and 90 percent of the Arab
population of Berlin . . . live off the state but reject that state.” The irony
is that, from retirees via the underemployed rural voters to professionals
getting rich off subventions and the dividends of the social safety net, this
describes pretty much the average AfD voter.
In his
memoir of the Greek debt crisis, Yanis Varoufakis describes the existential
vise in which German policymakers held his country. He thinks they’re playing
“politics,” but the story he tells is rather of policymakers playing theology.
Schäuble, Varoufakis’s bête noire, is a Protestant from the most Calvinist part
of Germany. His view of debt and obligation is religious. To him, the Greeks
had sinned and now had to do penance. And penance for him, Varoufakis suggests,
would mean expelling the Greeks from the EU, forcing them into indigence.
Angela
Merkel, child of unification, queen of the center, meanwhile had decided that
Greece would remain in the EU. Varoufakis points out that either course of
action would have been preferable to a combination of both. He is
understandably more interested in the existential dilemma into which German
conservatives’ moralization of economics has plunged his country than their
reasons for doing so. But those reasons are fascinating: The tag team of Merkel
and Schäuble treated countries as autonomous (good or bad) actors, when in fact
German wealth had always been premised on greater and greater interconnections.
Neoliberalism has inured people to viewing the world in fundamentally sadomasochistic terms: realistic is that point of view that looks to inflict suffering. And politician-administrators like Wolfgang Schäuble have given them a sense of how to take pleasure in it. While the AfD still commands a minor share of the electorate, this poisonous optic has taken hold of large portions of the German public. Splenetic about any reminders of a global interconnectedness of which they are the massive beneficiaries, these voters applaud themselves for a toughness they largely visit upon people they never have to meet.
It is true
that the gig economy, widespread precariousness, and self-employment have made
the economic lives of especially younger Germans extremely insecure compared to
their elders. And yet it is not them but their elders who channel an economic
anxiety that isn’t theirs into votes for the AfD. Maybe Adorno had it
half-right. The fear among some ethnic Germans is that the vicissitudes of the
world market could do to them what they habitually do to people who do not look
like them.
There Is No
Alternativelessness : What's been hiding
Germany's hidden crisis? By Adrian Daub.
nplusonemag , April 16, 2019
Talk of
succession is in the air. After 18 years, Angela Merkel is stepping down as
chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union, Germany’s main ruling party since
2005. The party’s conference meets this week in Hamburg to decide her
replacement. But whoever follows Ms. Merkel — for many, Europe’s de facto
leader — will inherit a fractious party and, if Ms. Merkel is unwilling or
unable to see out her chancellorship through to 2021, a fragmented country.
The stability
(and even monotony) associated with German politics under Ms. Merkel appears to
be coming to an end. Her looming retirement marks a deepening crisis of the
German political system that threatens not just the future of the country, but
of the European Union.
Explanations for
this shake-up often begin and end with Ms. Merkel. Her handling of the
so-called refugee crisis and her downbeat, aloof style alienated large chunks
of the electorate. The gradual weakening of the centrist parties has in turn
fed polarization and the fragmentation of the electorate.
But Ms. Merkel,
for all her power and influence, is just one politician. Germany’s new
political crisis runs much deeper. It stems from an economic system that has
resulted in stagnant wages and insecure jobs. The erosion of Germany’s postwar
settlement — a strong welfare state, full-time employment, the opportunity to
move up in the world — has created a populace open to messages and movements
previously banished to the fringes.
As with its
politics, on the surface Germany appears to be an economic success story. Its
G.D.P. has grown consistently for nearly a decade; unemployment is at its
lowest since reunification in 1989. In amassing trade surpluses, Germany has
enjoyed several advantages: an advanced manufacturing sector; the ability to
get primary products and services from other members of the European Union; and
being in the eurozone, which effectively gives the country a devalued currency,
making its exports more attractive.
But the system
has come at a cost. To maintain their competitive advantage in the global
market, companies held down wages. Though for skilled workers in the
export-oriented manufacturing sector pay remained stable, or even rose,
less-skilled and low-wage workers suffered. This was made possible by
decentralizing collective bargaining in the 1990s, which greatly weakened the
power of unions.
The other, more
alarming reason underlying the country’s political crisis — connected to, but
distinct from, the economy — is the erosion of the German social model in
recent decades. Though never as socially inclusive as the Scandinavian
countries, postwar Germany had a comprehensive welfare state and robust labor
unions, ensuring that citizens from the lower strata could achieve a decent
living standard and a bit of wealth through full-time employment.
In West Germany,
where a secure job was the norm, full-time employment served as the foundation
of social integration. The classic metaphor to describe this arrangement was
coined by the sociologist Ulrich Beck in the 1980s: the “elevator effect.” It
implied that though social inequality still existed, everyone was rising in the
same social “elevator,” meaning that the gap between rich and poor wouldn’t
widen.
Thirty years
later, this society has vanished. Average real incomes declined for nearly 20
years beginning in 1993. Germany not only grew more unequal, but the standard
of living for the lower strata stagnated or even fell. The lowest 40 percent of
households have faced annual net income losses for around 25 years now, while
the kinds of jobs that promised long-term stability dwindled.
The number of
precarious jobs like temp positions has exploded. At the height of postwar
prosperity, almost 90 percent of jobs offered permanent employment with
protections. By 2014, the figure had fallen to 68.3 percent. In other words,
nearly one-third of all workers have insecure or short-term jobs. Moreover, a
low-wage sector emerged employing millions of workers who can barely afford
basic necessities and often need two jobs to get by.
The German middle
class is shrinking and no longer functions as a cohesive bloc. Though the
upper-middle class still enjoys a high level of security, the lower middle
contends with a very real risk of downward mobility. The relatively new
phenomenon of a contracting — and internally divided — middle class has set off
widespread anxiety.
Instead of a
single elevator, Germany today now resembles a bank of escalators in a
department store: one escalator has already taken some well-to-do customers to
the upper floor, while for those below them, the direction of travel begins to
reverse. The daily experience of many is characterized by constant running up a
downward escalator. Even when people work hard and stick to the rules, they
often make little progress.
These fears of
social decline also accelerate xenophobia. There can be no doubt that a
majority of Germans welcomed the new immigrants, just over two million in
number, who arrived in 2015. But significant sections of the lower middle and
the working class disapproved. When ascent no longer seems possible and
collective social protest is almost nonexistent or ineffective, people tend to
grow resentful. This has led to accumulated dissatisfaction with the old major
parties, the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.
West Germany’s
three-party system of the postwar era is now a six-party system, making the
formation of stable coalitions much more difficult, a condition exacerbated by
the declining vote shares for the major parties. (It took almost six months to
form the current government, which faces periodic threats of collapse.) The
right-populist Alternative for Germany, whose leading figures flirt with racist
language and tolerate fascists among their ranks, has entered every state
parliament. Formed in 2013, it is now one of the loudest voices in national
politics, effectively the opposition.
The Greens too
appear to be profiting from disenchantment with the main parties, attracting
voters who prefer centrist politics but no longer trust the Social Democrats
and Christian Democrats to stand up to the far right, or to improve living
standards. Traditional loyalties no longer hold. A nervous, agitated mood has
settled across political life.
As Ms. Merkel’s
political career nears its end, and her possible replacements vie in Hamburg,
it seems clear that the economic and social regime over which she presided is
breaking down. Rising inequality has contributed to fragmentation in German
society, fueling right-wing populism and fundamentally reordering the country’s
politics. What comes next is anyone’s guess.
It Doesn’t
Matter Who Replaces Merkel. Germany Is Broken. Oliver Nachtwey. The New YorkTimes , December 7 , 2018.